Detailed analysis of the NBA Cup qualifying prospects: Lakers have a hard time defending their title, Warriors are in a death group and may be eliminated at the bottom
NBA officially announced the grouping and schedule of the 2024-25 NBA Cup (2nd Mid-Season Championship), which will be held from November 13 to December 18. The Timberwolves, Thunder, Mavericks in the West and the 76ers, Bucks, and Celtics in the East are in the easiest position to qualify. The Lakers are in Group B in the West with the Thunder and the Suns. It is extremely difficult for the Lakers led by James and Davis to defend their title. The Warriors are in Group C in the West, which can be called the "group of death". The Nuggets, Mavericks, Pelicans, and Grizzlies are in the same group. The Warriors have little hope of qualifying from the group and entering the quarterfinals.
Specific grouping of the second NBA Cup
Eastern:
A: Knicks, Magic, 76ers, Nets, Hornets
B: Bucks, Pacers, Heat, Raptors, Pistons
C: Celtics, Cavaliers, Bulls, Hawks, Wizards
Western:
A: Timberwolves, Clippers, Kings, Rockets, Trail Blazers
B: Thunder, Suns, Lakers, Jazz, Spurs
C: Nuggets, Mavericks, Pelicans, Warriors, Grizzlies
NBA Cup schedule (Beijing time):
The group stage will start on November 13
The group stage will end on December 4
The quarter-finals will be held on December 11-12
The semi-finals will be held on December 15 (in Las Vegas)
The finals will be held on December 18 (in Las Vegas)
Analysis of the potential eight-team qualifying spots in the NBA Cup
According to the NBA Cup grouping, in order to advance to the quarter-finals and get a spot, you need to be the top team in each group, plus the remaining two wildcard teams.
Among the three groups in the West, the competition in Group A is extremely fierce. The Timberwolves, Clippers, and Kings are all strong. Even though the Kings missed the playoffs last season, the strength of the Big Three has been greatly improved after adding DeRozan. The young guards Rockets are still making progress, but the Timberwolves, who advanced to the Western Conference Finals last season, are most likely to qualify as the top team in Group A.
The most popular team for the top spot in Group B will be the Thunder. They ranked first in the regular season in the West last season, and their core lineup is stable, which also makes them the most popular team for the top spot in the group. The Suns and Lakers have been in the same group for two consecutive years. They both need to compete for the second best team in the Western Conference. As the last champion, the Lakers have made few moves during the offseason. It is too difficult to compete for the championship in the new season, so they are likely to choose to go all out to defend the NBA Cup and hope to qualify as a wild card.
The Mavericks in Group C have the greatest hope of qualifying as the top team in the group, and the Nuggets may not focus all their energy on the NBA Cup.
Among the three groups in the East, the 76ers have become the favorite to win the top spot in Group A. After introducing George, they have formed a new Big Three lineup, and the Knicks have upgraded their strength even if they also introduced Bridges, but their overall competitiveness is still slightly inferior to the 76ers.
The Bucks have become the favorite to win the top spot in Group B. The Big Three combination of Antetokounmpo, Lillard and Middleton in the healthy mode is still trustworthy. The Celtics in Group C have become the favorite to win the top spot. After all, their core lineup is stable and they are still the championship team of last season, while the Pacers, who advanced to the NBA Cup finals last time, have the hope of getting a wild card.
Can the Lakers defend the Mid-Season Championship?
The Lakers won the first Mid-Season Championship in history last season. Under the leadership of James and Davis, they won the championship with a perfect record. James won the first Mid-Season Championship MVP and was selected into the All-NBA Team with Davis.
However, the Lakers' operation this offseason can be described as "unprogressive". In addition to renewing James' contract and selecting Bronny, the Lakers' remaining actions are to renew Christie's contract for 4 years and $32 million, and to hire Redick as coach. James was originally willing to take a pay cut to help the Lakers recruit players, but stars such as Harden, Klay, Valanciunas, and DeRozan all chose to reject the Lakers. The Lakers simply lay flat and did not want to recruit any more players. The lineup basically maintained the team of last season.
The Lakers have little hope of winning the championship in the new season, so they will most likely focus on the NBA Cup and strive to complete the defense. The Lakers NBA Cup is ranked in Group B in the West, and the teams in the same group include the Thunder, Suns, Jazz, and Spurs. It is extremely difficult for the Lakers to qualify as the top team in the group. The Thunder and the Suns will be direct obstacles, especially the Thunder's young team will continue to grow and become more powerful. Although the Suns did not make any big moves during the offseason, the strength of the Big Three lineup is still strong. The Lakers want to qualify as the top team in the group.
In this case, if the Lakers cannot become the top team in the group, they need to strive to become the second team in the group with the best performance in the West, so as to strive for a wild card spot. Therefore, the Lakers need to win as many net points as possible in each game. Once the Lakers can advance to the knockout stage, the Lakers led by James and Davis will still be very competitive in a knockout match that determines the outcome. It's just that they need to win all three games in the knockout stage to complete the defense. James is about to turn 40 years old. How much energy he has is questionable. Whether James and Davis can lead the team to defend the NBA Cup is naturally a huge suspense.
Can the Warriors break through the death group and qualify?
The Warriors did not perform well in the first event and were eliminated directly in the group stage. After all, the Warriors did not care about it last season. The Warriors made a major lineup adjustment during the offseason this year. Thompson, the core player of the four-time champion, joined the Mavericks to join the Eastern European team. Paul was abandoned and joined the Spurs to assist Wen Banyama. The Warriors introduced Rickey, Hield and Melton, but they also need Kuminga, Moody and Bodemski to continue to grow.
The Warriors are in the pain stage of the transition between the old and the new. Kerr's obsession with the "death five small" lineup has destined the Warriors' combat effectiveness to fluctuate greatly. Group C where the Warriors are located can be called the "death group". The other teams include the Nuggets, Mavericks, Pelicans, and Grizzlies. Except for the Grizzlies, the other three teams all advanced to the playoffs last season. The Grizzlies fell last season due to injuries. Once they recover in the new season, they will also be a playoff-level team. In such a death group, the Warriors have almost no chance of qualifying for the quarterfinals, and may even be eliminated at the bottom of the group.
The 30-team competition in the new season of the NBA Cup will officially kick off on November 13. Who will be the winner?